Could Transgender Women Be Banned from Women’s Olympic Events?

As the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games draw closer, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) is reportedly considering a revision of its eligibility rules regarding transgender women. While no official announcement has been made, multiple sources suggest new regulations could be introduced within the next year. This potential shift comes amid increasingly restrictive policies in the United States, host country of the upcoming Games.

Scientific Report Rekindles the Discussion

Speculation intensified following the presentation of a scientific report to the IOC by Dr. Jane Thornton, Director of Health, Medicine & Science. The report highlighted “permanent physical advantages” resulting from male puberty. Shortly after, reports from Sky News indicated that the IOC may implement sex verification tests for all Olympic sports in the run-up to 2028.

New Leadership and a Push for Global Standards

Under the guidance of IOC President Kirsty Coventry, a former Olympic swimmer from Zimbabwe, the organization is aiming for consistent eligibility guidelines across all sports. Previously, final decisions were left to individual international federations. This initiative led to the creation of a task force in September known as the “Protection of the Female Category,” charged with developing strategies to safeguard fairness in women’s competitions.

No Final Decision Yet

Despite ongoing debates, an IOC spokesperson confirmed that no definitive measures have been agreed upon yet. According to the IOC, Dr. Thornton’s presentation merely summarized the most up-to-date scientific findings during recent committee meetings. Current provisions still allow transgender athletes to compete at the Olympics, provided they meet the regulations of the relevant sport federations.

Mounting Pressure from the United States

U.S. domestic policy is playing a significant role in influencing the international conversation. As of July, leveraging an executive order signed by former President Donald Trump, the United States Olympic & Paralympic Committee (USOPC) and several sports federations barred transgender women from many women’s competitions, citing competitive fairness and safety concerns. More than 20 U.S. states have enacted laws limiting transgender participation in school and college sports.

The Lia Thomas Case: A Turning Point

Lia Thomas, a transgender collegiate swimmer, became a central figure in the debate after her victories in 2022. Although she complied with NCAA policies, World Aquatics later revised its eligibility rules, excluding athletes who underwent male puberty — effectively blocking Thomas from Paris 2024.

This exclusion was reinforced by a 2025 U.S. federal order titled “Keep Men Out of Women’s Sports,” which redefined eligibility based on biological sex and led to widespread bans on transgender women competing in female categories. The University of Pennsylvania subsequently nulled several of Thomas’ records, illustrating rising institutional pressure.

Economic and Political Forces at Play

The IOC finds itself at a crossroads, balancing the Olympic Games’ global inclusivity against the influence of an economically dominant host nation. With the United States playing a key role in broadcasting rights and sponsorship, its domestic stance on transgender inclusion could fast-track more restrictive international policies.

Sports Bodies Already Enacting Bans

Regardless of the IOC’s eventual position, several international and national sports organizations have independently revised their rules. World Rugby, World Athletics, and national federations such as the FA in England now prohibit transgender women who have experienced male puberty from competing in women’s events.

Olympic Precedents and Public Controversies

Since the 2021 Tokyo Games, several transgender and intersex athletes have left their mark on Olympic history. New Zealand weightlifter Laurel Hubbard became the first openly transgender woman to compete, and Canadian non-binary player Quinn took home a gold medal in football. In 2024, Valentina Petrillo became the first transgender athlete to race in the Paralympics.

Meanwhile, intersex athletes have faced their own challenges. South African runner Caster Semenya, a two-time Olympic gold medalist, was disqualified from the 800 meters due to elevated testosterone levels. Algerian boxer Imane Khelif was controversially banned after being mistakenly suspected of being transgender.

Persistent Confusion Between Transgender and Intersex Athletes

These controversies underscore a recurring issue: a widespread conflation of transgender women and athletes with differences in sex development (DSD). Though rooted in distinct medical and legal definitions, these two groups are often lumped together in public discourse and sports policy decisions.

The absence of a nuanced regulatory framework, coupled with increasing political pressure, may lead to blanket exclusions that fail to reflect these essential differences in identity and biology — potentially undermining inclusion in the name of fairness.

A Historic Crossroads for Olympic Policy

As the Los Angeles Games approach, the IOC stands on the cusp of a defining transformation. Any global ban on transgender women in women’s events would not only reshape Olympic participation but also send a powerful message about identity recognition in international sport. The Olympics would evolve from a stage of athletic excellence into an arena of deeper cultural and political significance.